Sepideh Karimi, Research Scientist Lead, will be presenting at the Ground Water Protection Council Annual Forum: "Beyond Common Induced Seismic Monitoring Practice; Real-Time Risk Mitigation Application"
Wednesday, September 12, 2018
3:30pm to 5:00pm
Grand Ballroom C (5th Floor)
Sheraton New Orleans
Induced seismicity-related regulations implemented to date in various jurisdictions typically focus on defining operator actions in response to seismicity large enough to be recorded by public seismic networks. The operators are required to establish operational protocols designed to minimize the likelihood of the occurrence of large magnitude events and are in some instances mandated to implement higher resolution seismic monitoring arrays. The ultimate goal of these seismic networks beyond simple regulatory compliance is to provide operators with a near real-time measure of the induced seismicity risk and an indication of the risk mitigation protocol effectiveness. In order to achieve this objective, the main requirement for local and near-regional arrays is to produce fast, accurate and complete seismic catalogs. This, in turn, allows timely synthesis and display of accurate catalog level data products that indicate the probability of occurrence of events large enough to trigger regulatory action. Fundamentally, induced seismicity risk management requires the creation of research-grade seismic catalogs in near real-time. Such earthquake catalog in combination with operational data could be used as an input to the forecasting seismicity models related to fluid injection.
The focus of this study is on highlighting the current state of technology to generate a high-quality seismic catalog in real-time and the application of the fine-tuned enriched catalog in risk management. Using the examples from local and near-regional arrays, we highlight the challenges associated with real-time seismic data processing and present some of the advanced methods that can be deployed to address those challenges. Moreover, we illustrate examples of near real-time risk management application for hydraulic fracturing operations and validate the predictions of different models by playing back the data and demonstrating how well each method could forecast expected maximum magnitude and future seismicity.